Thursday, December 3, 2015

Is Houston's Competitive Edge at Risk of Slipping Away?

I sat for breakfast with two dear friends on a Friday in mid-September, and we had the most enjoyable time catching up on tales of summer adventures, professional conquests, and future plans. As we parted ways outside the diner, one of the three in our group revealed that he and his wife were contemplating moving back to New York, where he is originally from. His remarks came as a bit of a surprise because we have all routinely expressed long-term plans tied to Houston. To my further surprise, Friend B, a transplant from the Midwest, remarked that he too was losing his zeal for Houston, and talked about how other "non-peer" cities such as Dallas were outpacing us in several areas.

My friends further elaborated that Houston seemed to be losing momentum, not just economically, but also in terms of inaction from city leadership leaving us seemingly stuck in the last decade. Friend B talked about being in Minneapolis a few weeks prior, and how simple and easy it was getting from the airport to downtown via light rail. He also talked about the ease with which he and his wife traveled around the city during their weekend stay, and how the city just left them wanting to return for a visit.

Fiend A remarked about how his wife of over a decade, who is originally from Austin, during a recent weekend in New York to his surprise expressed how she felt a certain kind of energy, so much that she conceded after 15 years of resisting that she would be open to their family with their two kids moving back to his hometown. He further expressed about how much they enjoyed hanging in the City, the vibrance of the people, and just the imprint that New York's swagger imparted on them.

Before long, I was joining in the chorus describing my recent trip to St. Louis, and how easy it was to get on the light rail from the airport to downtown for a quick lunch meeting, and then to the suburbs. I started to go into explaining how downtown St. Louis was undergoing significant revitalization of its water front along with potential plans for a new football stadium, before I finally caught myself and asked "wait, would you guys seriously consider moving out of Houston"? 

The takeaway from that morning's exchange was that Houston's competitive edge has relied, for a long time, on its strong job market and affordable real estate.  In the aftermath of the latest boom-and-bust oil cycle, Houston is forced to grapple with losing some of that competitive edge. Houston real estate is still relatively affordable compared with some of the other top 20 U.S. cities. However, inflated rents and rapid value growth within the urban core and exurban communities has made the city significantly less affordable than it was just five years ago. This coupled with the slowdown in employment growth due to the energy industry's decline, and you get a picture of a city losing the luster of it attractiveness for newer, younger residents.

The city is taking concrete steps to enhance its image and quality of life through an ambitious bayou trails project, which will connect the city's bayous via bike trails, and provide for great outdoor recreation. Buffalo Bayou, which runs from Downtown to west Houston has become a destination for outdoor lovers, who can now navigate vast portions of the sleepy flowing waters in a watercraft. The City has undergone improvements to the theater district, expanded light rail service, and new development taking place in Downtown and the Galleria area, which should all enhance Houston's livability.

For Houston to inure the full benefits of these investments in its physical landscape, the city must promote these amenities to visitors and make sure they are easily accessible to all Houstonians. The city must maintain economic competitiveness by living up to its reputation as a business friendly place, and operating a more predictable regulatory regime. To continue to entice and retain young people, the city must invest in a multi-modal transportation system, attract new industries, and make every effort to ensure housing opportunities are available for people at all income levels within the urban core. Houston's next mayor must make the foregoing a priority, and act with urgency to take essential steps towards maintaining Houston's competitive edge.