Showing posts with label median income. Show all posts
Showing posts with label median income. Show all posts

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Houston’s Housing Affordability – An Action Plan for 2023 and Beyond

 INTRODUCTION

 

Since the 2015 publication of the initial white paper titled “Maintaining Houston’s Affordability for Working Class Families”, which took a comprehensive look at the state of the housing market of one of the most affordable of America’s largest cities. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, Houston was for a long time regarded as a hidden gem for housing stock and affordability and the region was recognized consistently in national and international rankings of best places to live. In contrast to the economic malaise that hung above most of the United States, the improvement in horizontal drilling/fracking technology in the country led to a major boom in the oil and gas sector, a significant driver of Houston’s economy.

 The rapid recovery of Houston’s economy post financial crisis in 2010-2015 led to a steep climb in the local real estate market as thousands of families fled California, New York and other economically challenged regions for the greener hydrocarbon-fueled pastures of Texas. Neighborhoods in Houston and other major cities in Texas characterized by long-term owner residents gave way to new buyers offering above list price for homes, and newer ever more grand multifamily apartments were being constructed within Houston’s urban core, middle region, and suburban outskirts to meet the growing demand. This unabating demand from new residents led to a real estate building spike, which drove up land and rent prices seemed to only attract more new entrants. Then we experienced the crude oil crash of 2015, which unwittingly demonstrated just how resilient and diversified Houston’s economy had become.

Coinciding with these shifts in Houston’s economic fate, were changes in lifestyle and generational tapestry of Houston’s residents, many of whom increasingly became interested in living in urban environments characterized by denser more walkable neighborhoods within close proximity to retail and other urban amenities. Around the same time, Houston initiated the Downtown Living Initiative that provided a $15,000 per housing unit incentive for construction of multifamily housing in the eastern half of Downtown Houston, with the result being a boom in housing construction in the area stretching from Buffalo Bayou to Highway 45 between Main Street and Interstate 69. Additionally, the city made a determined commitment to invest in its pedestrian infrastructure embarked on the ambitious Bayou Greenways project, which led to construction of the longest intra-city bike network system in America, a 190-mile trail of connections along the city’s system of ubiquitous bayous.

The market response to the shifts in desires of urban dwellers, led to a frenzy of redevelopment and new development activity and rising rent rates within the urban core that resulted in the displacement of long-term residents of communities dispersed throughout the urban core and within proximity of Houston’s major employment centers. This displacement forced residents to seek housing in far-flung areas of the region, increasing the pressure on housing rents in suburban communities at or around the boundaries of the city limits. 

In our original paper, we cited important statistics about population, households, income, and real estate market data for Houston, which represented the conditions as they existed in 2015 (the “base year). For purposes of this update to the white paper, you will see terms such as ‘base year’, ‘original paper’, ‘initial white paper’, and 2015, where the reference being made is to data captured in the initial white paper the author penned in 2015. This paper updates those statistics for 2022 and examines the governmental actions needed to create a workable solution to the affordable housing market in Houston.

HOUSEHOLDS, INCOME, AND HOUSING NUMBERS

The 2020 census recorded Houston’s population at 2.304 million residents, representing a 4.75% increase from 2015, though lower than what was projected to be a 1.36% annual growth rate that would have resulted in a 6.33% increase in the population. A demographic phenomenon that took hold since 2015 has been a reduction in the average household size decreasing from 2.70 persons to 2.61 persons per household. During the same period the percentage of owner-occupied dwellings decreased from 45% to 42.9%, continuing a trend of a decline in homeownership rates for Houstonians.1 The percentage of homeownership not only stands out for being low when compared to other major American cities, it is abysmal in the context of a nation that prides itself on the idea of the ‘American Dream’ with a homeownership rate of 65.5% across the United States.2

Our original white paper recorded the US Census estimated the 2015 area median income for the Houston area at $48,258, a number which as of 2020 has risen to $53,600, representing an approximate 11% increase in income.1 In its June 2022 report, the Houston Association of Realtors’ monthly housing report indicated that the median home sold in the Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was priced at $354,440, which when compared to the base year figure of $223,000 in August 2015 represented a 59.42% increase. The August 2022 median home value retreated to $341,950 in the aftermath of aggressive repeated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Bank. That number still represents a 10.8 percent increase from the same month in 2021.3 It is also worth noting that the average price of a single-family home in the Houston area is now reportedly at a historic high of $411,671. 3 The combination of those two factors greatly impacts the affordability index for Houston.

A quick analysis of the data reveals a staggering divergence from the base year to 2022 in the growth trends of income as compared to housing values, a fact underpins what has become a tipping point crisis for the Houston housing market. What you we observe is the growth in housing values outpacing the growth in incomes by a factor of five, which is simply unsustainable in the long run for a region that has long attracted people and industry based on its reputation as a place with a highly attractive affordable cost of living.

The conventional measure of housing affordability has historically stipulated that households should spend no more than 30% of their income on their total housing expenses. A study conducted by Rice University’s Shell Center for Sustainability in 2013 indicated that in five of Houston’s 11 city council districts, 31% of households spent in excess of 30% of their income on housing.4 The study further ranked Houston 26th on the list of top 50 U.S. cities for affordability when transportation costs were factored in, a fact best appreciated by suburban residents most familiar with Houston’s traffic. In a separate report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 45.5% of rental households in the Houston MSA spent more than 30% of their income on housing.5

The rental market in Houston has fared considerably better when compared to the homeownership market, though finding affordable rental housing opportunities is increasingly out of reach for even more families. According to reporting on Houston-based Apartment Data Services, the average rent for all apartment types in Houston had risen to $1,188 per month as of 2021, with Class A apartments averaging $1,675 per month, and the forecast for a 5% rental rate growth in 2022 for the Greater Houston area.6  In its report of comprehensive tracking of apartment rental information the Apartment List revealed that the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment within the Houston MSA is now $1,092 per month and $1,301 per month for the average two-bedroom.7  

In its 2022 State of Housing Report Rice University’s Kinder Institute illustrates how the median home value within the city of Houston and Harris County have nearly doubled over the last decade, with the sharpest increases occurring in the intervals between 2012-2014 and more profoundly between 2020-2022.8 The same report reveals that the median lease price per square foot of single-family homes rented within Houston and Harris County has grown a more modest 9% and 22% respectively from 2015 to 2022. 

When the growth in median income from the base year to the current year is compared with the increase in median home sold, a picture emerges of a stark divergence in the average family’s ability to purchase a home within the Houston market. Based on the current rate for a 30-year mortgage and depending on how much they have for a down payment, the average family looking to purchase a median priced home would need an income above $130,000 to qualify for a mortgage. For an individual earning the median income, the maximum mortgage their income will allow them to afford is a home at or below $125,000, a home that would be a rare find anywhere in the market given the current housing situation. 

When we consider the decline in homeownership rates the dynamics within the rental housing market holds greater significance as a greater percent of the population and a larger total number of households are now reliant on the rental market for housing. As the cost of homeownership has exploded over the last several years, a less acute spike has occurred in the rental market though the cost of renting a home has grown continually in every housing sector over that time span. The outlook for homeownership has been even more bleak for millennials and Gen Zers who continue to bear the brunt of the inequities in the housing market with less than 25% of that population segment being homeowners according to metrics cited by various national organizations.

Many within that age group are trapped in between the stagnation of slow growing incomes and the rapidly increasing housing costs, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, causing many to revert to moving back home with parents, while others sought out alternative arrangements such as roommates’ co-occupancy or short-term guests as a means of relieving the housing costs burden. The student loan relief executive order issued by the current administration, when enacted is expected to relieve some of the burden faced by those with student debt, however, the student loan relief affects only a fraction of that populace and will not go far enough to provide housing relief for many who owe a greater amount in student loans than the act covers.

It is worth noting that our original paper cited that many within that age segment, who were otherwise able to purchase a home, were opting to rent to be closer to work or the inner city, as was confirmed by a national survey conducted in 2015 where majority of millennials planned to put off buying a home till 2018 and beyond. Now the additional pressures have made homeownership almost impossible.

POVERTY NUMBERS

The results of the 2020 US Census revealed that the City of Houston had an overall poverty rate of 19.6%, which is just below the average for the State of Texas and represents approximately 452,368 persons or 173,321 households. At a broader scale, the concentration of poverty in particular communities continued throughout the United States over the last several years. While poverty prior to the 2008 recession was concentrated in distressed neighborhoods within the urban core of most cities and in rural areas, many of these hotspots have now expanded to suburban and other areas a trend that has grown in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.9

According to a 2017 report by the Brookings Institute poverty which had historically been a problem associated with large urban centers and rural communities, grew at pace double of that seen in smaller metropolitan areas, with suburbs in the country’s largest metropolitan areas experienced the number of residents living below the poverty line grow by 57 percent from 2000 to 2015.10 A 2014 analysis of the American Communities Survey (2008-2012) affirmed the impact concentration of families living in poverty had in instigating challenges similar to those faced by disadvantaged neighborhoods – namely escalating crime rates, failing schools, poorer health outcomes, and fewer employment opportunities — making it harder for families to break the cycle of poverty.11 The report further cited that the number of distressed neighborhoods, census tracts where poverty rates exceed 40 percent, rose by 75% during the early 2000’s, and nearly every major metropolitan area witnessed the growth of suburban poverty during the same time period.

Figure 1.


HOUSTON’S HOUSING SITUATION

In 2015, Houston was sliding towards an era, where the average family could no longer enjoy the abundant availability of moderately priced housing for rent or homeownership. The reality at the time, though concerning, was still largely within the grasp of policymakers to redress and implement a decisive plan of action to stem the tide of what was to come. A series of successive natural disaster events, the Memorial Day flood of 2015, the ‘Tax Day’ flood of 2016, and Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, introduced a highly destabilized housing environment with internally displaced residents needing to fend for themselves, while externally displaced persons (a la Louisiana and other parts of Texas) sought refuge within the existing housing in the Houston region.

Despite significant efforts by private sector non-profit and for-profit developers, Houston has not been able to build enough housing units to replace the number of affordable units (statutory and “naturally occurring”) that were lost to this string of disasters. While grappling with a housing market facing significant upward pricing pressure, emergence of the COVID-19 public health crisis led to even further disruptions within the housing market and construction industries, then Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 introduced the term “fix the grid” into our Texan lexicon as families were confronted with a different type of disaster than previously encountered.

In the aftermath of the aforementioned period capped off by the COVID-19 endemic, the Houston MSA experienced an increase in the ‘Relative Property Value’ both within the Urban and Suburban submarkets, that applied additional pressure on both market segments, unlike in other comparable major MSA’s that witnessed a divergence with a much more significant impact on property values in suburban as compared to urban areas.12 This bifurcated effect has rendered futile any current efforts by families to flee to the outlying areas and surrounding counties of Houston in search of lower cost housing. That is an issue further complicated by the rise in transportation costs reflected in the cost of automobiles, vehicle maintenance, and gasoline prices.

The difficult reality of the challenges surrounding around affordable housing have only accelerated since the 2015 base year and created a further chasm between what working families need –- a balanced housing market with an adequate number of affordable options for renters and homeowners –- and what the market offers. Data from the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs indicated that in 2015, 46,261 affordable housing units available in the Houston from the state’s Housing Tax Credit programs.13 The most recent report from July 2022 revealed that the total number of affordable housing units available in Houston grew to 56,438 units, representing a 22% increase or a total increase of 10,177 units the equivalent of a 1,454 increase in the number of units delivered annually.

The Houston Housing Authority publicly reports that the agency currently owns 5,700 housing units in 25 housing developments and administers a Housing Choice Voucher program that serves over 17,000 families for a combined total of approximately 23,000 housing units serving about 60,000 low-income Houstonians and serves an additional 40,000 individuals via its Public Facilities Corporation’s involvement in multifamily developments. Combining data from both agencies, we can approximate that affordable/rent-restricted housing units for Houston’s low to moderate income families, earning between $16,000 and $57,000 or 30% to 80% of Area Median Income (AMI), totals approximately 80,000 housing units. It is important to note that with a decline in the average number of persons per household (-3.3%), the number of households needing affordable housing has also increased by the corresponding factor to the decrease in household size. 

The analysis of the household and population data from the 2020 American Communities Survey indicates that there are approximately 833,000 households within the city of Houston or a total of 1,437,000 within Harris County. The Harris County ‘My Home Is Here’ report indicated that the 2020 median household income for Houston and Harris County were approximately $61,900 and $73,000 respectively.14 The income data coupled with the low level of homeownership in Houston reveals the difficulty of homeownership as a viable option for most of Houston’s families, leaving over 700,000 Houston area households with rental housing as their primary option. Considering other socioeconomic factors such as credit, employment stability, and upward mobility, you find that most of those residents simply are unable to leverage homeownership as a tool to climb up the economic ladder.

The same Harris County report indicated that there are approximately 315,000 naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH) units in Harris County or about 22% of the total households. With the high number of renters, and such low levels of rent-restricted affordable units, nearly 400,000 households must rely on market supply for affordable housing options. Though the market does supply housing for some within that gap, the reality is those options can often be limited to substandard dwelling units. Further, many of the neighborhoods characterized by naturally occurring affordable housing in Houston usually result from housing units built four or more decades ago. The aging housing supply in these areas are sometimes surrounded by declining neighborhoods or areas attracting throngs of investors rehabilitating some of the older housing units to flip for a profit or put back on the market at much higher rents. All told, over 500,000 households within Harris County were reported to be spending above the recommended 30% of their income on housing costs, leaving less for other living expenses including transportation.14

In its ‘The State of 2022 Housing in Harris County and Houston’ report, the Kinder Institute at Rice University observed that the Houston region was short 160,000 housing units affordable for households earning less than $20,000 a year.15 In October 2022, of the 5,706 homes with a Houston address on the Houston Association of Realtors website, only 1,660 (29%) were priced below $292,000 (City of Houston’s 2022 affordability threshold for single family), and 302 two-plus bedroom Townhouse/Condominiums priced at or below $200,000. Most “would be homeowners” nationally cite affordability challenges tied to soaring home prices and higher mortgage rates as significant barriers to homeownership.16 When a full accounting of the facts and statistics is taken into consideration, we are left with the unmistakable conclusion that homeownership has become unattainable for a significant majority of Houston’s families who do not already own a home.

 

RECOMMENDATIONS: A PATHWAY FORWARD

The City of Houston’s embrace of higher density policies has facilitated construction of more dense housing initially within the 610 Loop and now inside the Beltway 8 loop, which contributes significantly to more Houstonians having access to housing units that are comparatively more affordable. More recently, revisions to parking requirements along transit corridors and greater flexibility in allowable housing types and materials have been positive steps in the right direction. Furthermore, the City’s establishment of the Houston Community Land Trust and the reinvigoration of the Houston Land Bank during the current administration have equally been important advancements towards addressing and protecting long-term housing affordability for Houston’s families.

The City’s planning commission, however, has in recent times implemented major revisions to the development code that impacts and stands to counter so many of the gains that have been achieved in terms of policies promoting housing affordability. One example is the revision of the building setback that extends the necessity for a fire-rated exterior wall for structures from within three feet of a property’s boundary threshold to within five feet of the property boundary line. The revisions were ostensibly approved as a means of reducing fire hazards for adjacent property owners. However, the potential dollar value in fire damage it would reduce pales in comparison to the cumulative increase in housing costs that will result from this change alone. To put it succinctly, the average 5,000 square feet single family lot, which spans 50 feet wide by 100 feet deep, has effectively had development curtailed across 400 square feet (both sides from boundary line) or 8% of its coverage area or would force developers have to develop within those areas at a higher cost. 

If Houston is to stem the tide of its housing crisis, the urgency of the moment must come into focus, and Houston and Harris County will need to apply every tool at their disposal in hopes of mitigating the imminent housing catastrophe. Small incremental steps are no longer sufficient and relying on federal dollars is wholly unsustainable as those dollars will only flow after another disaster has wreaked havoc on the already anemic supply of affordable units. Policymakers need to go BIG in the development of solutions to improve access to affordable housing, both from a funding and public policy perspective. Houston needs a Comprehensive Housing Plan and a statutorily codified implementation plan to bring the plan to fruition.

In addition to the Comprehensive Housing Plan, new financial priorities must be established to provide significant funding for implementation of the plan. The City and County need to pursue housing bond referenda that will raise no less than a combined $500 million to be committed to the preservation and production of affordable housing over the next ten years. Additionally, significant budgetary resources need to be committed to housing by both entities, particularly given the positive impact that access to safe quality housing has on other social determinants of health and life outcomes. To put it another way, making considerable investments in affordable and mixed-income housing will arguably significantly reduce the resources that will have to be spent on healthcare, incarceration, and social benefits in the long run.

The City of Houston must continue to pursue revisions to its Development Code to promote the reduction of costs associated with building new multifamily and single-family housing. To achieve this action, an advisory board of external stakeholders, including industry professionals and neighborhood organizations, should be established to provide periodic recommendations for the planning commission for discussion and action. Policies to be routinely reviewed include should include parking requirements, setback regulations, the development ordinance, and streamlining of the permitting process. Finally, to achieve its long-term aims, the City of Houston needs to collaborate with key stakeholders including developers, non-profit organizations, real estate professionals, quasi-public agencies, and neighborhood organizations, many of whom comprise the recently formed Houston Housing Collaborative, to generate a workable needs and market driven comprehensive plan for housing affordability.

In the initial white paper published in 2015, we outlined specific recommendations for actions the City of Houston administration needed to take and most of those same recommendations are being restated below since action on them has not occurred:
(The following italicized segments restate verbatim recommendations from the initial 2015 white paper)

The City of Houston should take action to implement the following:

-                  Adopt and implement a Comprehensive Housing Plan.

-                  Replicate the $15,000 per door incentive program used to drive development of residential units in the eastern half of Downtown during the Parker administration, by offering abatements to developers whose projects incorporate at least 60% of the units restricted to below market rents for residents within 30–80% AMI.

-                  Leverage existing HOME and CDBG funds with State 4% Tax Exempt Bonds and 9% Housing Tax Credits to drive development of affordable housing in target areas.

-                  Utilize CIP spending to drive infrastructural improvements in target areas spelled out in the Comprehensive Housing Plan, and apply housing dollars from TIRZ’s, and development incentives such as tax abatements and lower permit fees to accelerate workforce housing development

-                  Implement a standard reimbursement for builders who tear down structures cited as dangerous buildings by the City of Houston, provided they construct affordable housing in its place within three years

-                  Establish a policy that stipulates that in the event the City of Houston funds are expended towards a development or on City-owned land, there is a requirement that between 10 - 25% of affordable housing units be included within the project.

-                  Incorporate fast-track permitting for “affordable” housing to facilitate faster delivery of housing units.

-                  Fast-track the Planning Department approval process for affordable housing developers with an established track record with the City.

Homeownership

The goal of achieving development of affordable homes within the urban core must focus on overcoming the significant barriers of high cost of land, scarcity of assembled large contiguous tracts, lack of qualified buyers, tightened mortgage requirements, higher interest rates, and the unfavorable risk/reward ratio that drives most builders to respond to the needs of the higher end of the market. The City of Houston needs to rebuild and rebrand its homeownership incentive program to make it more robust, flexible, and accommodating to the development of affordable single-family homes within the urban core. Some of the proposed goals for City’s single-family program should include: 

-                  Achieve a 40% annual conversion rate of Houston Land Bank owned lots into development of single-family dwelling units from 2023 – 2025.

-                  Facilitate construction of 10,000 single family homes for working class families between 2023 – 2028.

-                  Partner with developers and offer reimbursements for infrastructural improvements (sidewalks, lighting, pocket parks) in communities needing revitalization.

Rental Housing

Using its internal data, the City of Houston should identify target goals for affordable rental housing units to be developed over the next ten years within its boundaries. Furthermore, the City should establish targets for development of housing in certain opportunistic areas with good schools that are within proximity of major employment centers including: Downtown, Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, Westwood/Sharpstown, Energy Corridor, and NASA/Clear Lake. (Galleria, Greenway Plaza, and City Center/Town & Country have been deleted as those areas have largely become closed off to affordable rental and homeownership opportunities)
 

CONCLUSION

The City of Houston needs to commission a Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis, which would measure income and households against housing options available that fit within the 30 percent income test. This study would help the city better understand the shortages in affordable housing, identify areas of greatest need, and offer a defined basis on which to prioritize affordable housing development. The study should quantify the percent of current dwelling units that are substandard housing, and those that need to be rebuilt or rehabilitated to extend their useful life. Quantitative data from this study should be evaluated against the aforementioned recommendations to ascertain whether the suggested actions go far enough in helping the City meet its long-term affordable housing needs.

Given the Comprehensive Study data available, the City’s Housing and Community Development Department can work with the Planning Department and community stakeholders to apply necessary revisions to the goal of completing affordable housing units within the five-year span from 2023 to 2028. The data can also help establish a more comprehensive decade-long forecast. This longitudinal forecast can then be incorporated into a prioritization chart, where housing development numbers are targeted by geographic area, type (family or elderly), and category (rental or owner occupied). Lastly, the action plan should be integrated within the City’s Neighborhoods and Public Works & Engineering Departments, so that they can be part of the process of improving target neighborhoods, and prioritizing capital improvement spending.

A few other factors that will affect the trajectory of the Houston region over the next decade include the so-called doughnut hole effect, where the suburban areas within Harris County continue to outpace the rate of growth within the City, a trend further exacerbated by the shifts in the housing preferences of millennials.17 The continued undersupply of the Houston housing market will also continue to render consequential effects as the region’s population growth continues to outpace the growth in its housing stock.18 Houston’s diversity, geography, and dynamic economy will for the foreseeable future continue to foster vibrancy of the region, but the housing challenges it faces could become intransigent over time leading it on an intractable path to unaffordability. It is safe to assume that housing unaffordability will remain a malignant problem in Houston for the foreseeable future absent an aggressive housing action plan backed by government policy.

 

*         *        *

Laolu Davies-Yemitan is principal of Five Woods Realty, a real estate development firm focused on developing affordable multifamily and urban in-fill residential development. (Contact: Linkedin.com/in/laolu).

 

REFERENCES

 

        1. US Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/houstoncitytexas


        2. FRED Economic Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N

          

        3. HAR (September 2022): https://www.harconnect.com/houston-housing-remains-robust-in-august-as-the-market-cooldown-continues/

 

         4. Rice University Shell Center for Sustainability (2013) - http://news.rice.edu/2013/09/23/affordable-housing-and-flooding-among-sustainability-issues-to-address-in-houston-2/; https://shellcenter.rice.edu/uploadedFiles/Shell_Center/Indicators/HSISocial2013sml.pdf

 

         5.  Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies - http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/jchs-sonhr-2015-ch5.pdf 

 

         6. Houston-area apartment affordability has ‘left the building,’ apartment data analyst says, Houston Business Journal (2022) - https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2022/02/07/houston-apartment-state-of-the-industry-2022.html

 

         7. Apartment List (2022) - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates

 

         8. The 2022 State of Housing in Harris County and Houston (2022) - https://kinder.rice.edu/research/2022-state-housing-harris-county-and-houston

 

         9. American Poverty is moving from the cities to the Suburbs, The Economist (2019) – https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/09/26/american-poverty-is-moving-from-the-cities-to-the-suburbs

 

        10. The changing geography of US Poverty, Brookings (2017) - https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/the-changing-geography-of-us-poverty/

 

         11. The Growth and Spread of Concentrated Poverty, 2000 to 2008-2012 (2014) - http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2014/concentrated-poverty#/M10420

 

         12. Did the Pandemic advance new suburbanization? https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2022/05/23/did-the-pandemic-advance-new-suburbanization/

 

         13. Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs - http://www.tdhca.state.tx.us/multifamily/housing-tax-credits-9pct/index.htm

 

         14. My Home Is Here: Harris County’s Housing Needs Assessment and 10-Year Strategy (2021) - https://www.myhomeishere.org/Portals/myhomeishere/Documents/Resources/-48034192993MHIH_Final_Report_10292021_compressed.pdf

 

         15. The 2022 State of Housing in Harris County and Houston (2022) - https://kinder.rice.edu/research/2022-state-housing-harris-county-and-houston  

 

         16. Nearly two-thirds of Non-Homeowners Polled say Affordability woes Block Homeownership, BankRate.com (March 30, 2022) - https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/homeownership-remains-centerpiece-of-american-dream/

 

          17. How Covid-19 migration, housing trends will remake the suburbs, Houston Business Journal (2022) -            https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2022/08/31/population-housing-migration-suburbs-covid-19.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=HO&j=28908576&senddate=2022-08-31

 

18. Houston’s housing market is undersupplied and overpriced, studies find, Houston Business Journal (2022) - https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2022/08/29/housing-supply-houston-population-stessa.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=HO&j=28908576&senddate=2022-08-31

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Is Houston's Competitive Edge at Risk of Slipping Away?

I sat for breakfast with two dear friends on a Friday in mid-September, and we had the most enjoyable time catching up on tales of summer adventures, professional conquests, and future plans. As we parted ways outside the diner, one of the three in our group revealed that he and his wife were contemplating moving back to New York, where he is originally from. His remarks came as a bit of a surprise because we have all routinely expressed long-term plans tied to Houston. To my further surprise, Friend B, a transplant from the Midwest, remarked that he too was losing his zeal for Houston, and talked about how other "non-peer" cities such as Dallas were outpacing us in several areas.

My friends further elaborated that Houston seemed to be losing momentum, not just economically, but also in terms of inaction from city leadership leaving us seemingly stuck in the last decade. Friend B talked about being in Minneapolis a few weeks prior, and how simple and easy it was getting from the airport to downtown via light rail. He also talked about the ease with which he and his wife traveled around the city during their weekend stay, and how the city just left them wanting to return for a visit.

Fiend A remarked about how his wife of over a decade, who is originally from Austin, during a recent weekend in New York to his surprise expressed how she felt a certain kind of energy, so much that she conceded after 15 years of resisting that she would be open to their family with their two kids moving back to his hometown. He further expressed about how much they enjoyed hanging in the City, the vibrance of the people, and just the imprint that New York's swagger imparted on them.

Before long, I was joining in the chorus describing my recent trip to St. Louis, and how easy it was to get on the light rail from the airport to downtown for a quick lunch meeting, and then to the suburbs. I started to go into explaining how downtown St. Louis was undergoing significant revitalization of its water front along with potential plans for a new football stadium, before I finally caught myself and asked "wait, would you guys seriously consider moving out of Houston"? 

The takeaway from that morning's exchange was that Houston's competitive edge has relied, for a long time, on its strong job market and affordable real estate.  In the aftermath of the latest boom-and-bust oil cycle, Houston is forced to grapple with losing some of that competitive edge. Houston real estate is still relatively affordable compared with some of the other top 20 U.S. cities. However, inflated rents and rapid value growth within the urban core and exurban communities has made the city significantly less affordable than it was just five years ago. This coupled with the slowdown in employment growth due to the energy industry's decline, and you get a picture of a city losing the luster of it attractiveness for newer, younger residents.

The city is taking concrete steps to enhance its image and quality of life through an ambitious bayou trails project, which will connect the city's bayous via bike trails, and provide for great outdoor recreation. Buffalo Bayou, which runs from Downtown to west Houston has become a destination for outdoor lovers, who can now navigate vast portions of the sleepy flowing waters in a watercraft. The City has undergone improvements to the theater district, expanded light rail service, and new development taking place in Downtown and the Galleria area, which should all enhance Houston's livability.

For Houston to inure the full benefits of these investments in its physical landscape, the city must promote these amenities to visitors and make sure they are easily accessible to all Houstonians. The city must maintain economic competitiveness by living up to its reputation as a business friendly place, and operating a more predictable regulatory regime. To continue to entice and retain young people, the city must invest in a multi-modal transportation system, attract new industries, and make every effort to ensure housing opportunities are available for people at all income levels within the urban core. Houston's next mayor must make the foregoing a priority, and act with urgency to take essential steps towards maintaining Houston's competitive edge.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Maintaining Houston’s Affordability for Working Class Families



Maintaining Houston’s Affordability for Working Class Families
Laolu Davies-Yemitan
September 2015

INTRODUCTION

Long viewed as a hidden gem largely outside the nation’s spotlight, the city of Houston has been ranked as the best place to live in several different categories by national and international publications over the last five years. Likely due to its new found popularity, and the region’s economic prowess, the Bayou City is becoming a less affordable place to live. Houston has long been renowned for its real estate affordability and good neighborhoods making the city score high on the quality of life index. However, as the city weathered the recession and continued to create new jobs, the demand of new residents led to a real estate spike, drove up land and rent prices in good neighborhoods and within the urban core. The success of the real estate market and the lack of supply has led to a dearth of affordable real estate options in quality neighborhoods, leaving less desirable neighborhoods as the only places where working class families can find a place they can afford to live.

The growth of the Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) has followed both the Sector Growth and Multiple Nuclei theories. In the “sector growth” theory of development, growth occurs along the periphery of the central business district, as seen in inner-loop Houston. While in the “multiple nuclei” theory, development growth occurs as new urban centers form within residential areas. The “multiple nuclei” theory has characterized Houston’s expansion over the last four decades, and has helped the region thrive as city dwellers were able to find new enclaves to raise their families in suburban settings. Over the last 20 years, “re-urbanization” has drawn more affluent residents back into the city’s inner core, gradually replacing the old sector growth order. This shift has been accompanied by a cross-migrational pattern where suburban, previously quality affordable neighborhoods abandoned by original occupants, are being replaced by newer low-to-moderate income families. These shifting trends have led to what is increasingly becoming a broad based urban/suburban need for quality affordable housing.

Figure 1a.                 Sector Growth Model
city sector growth image
Note: Similar to Houston’s Growth Model


Figure 1b.           Multiple Nuclei Growth Model

city multiple nuclei growth image


Note: For illustrative purposes only


Some of the critical factors to consider when looking at housing affordability include income, poverty, neighborhoods, housing availability, and public policy. This paper examines the current real estate market, income levels of working class families, availability of affordable housing options for those families, and suggests policy proposals to deal with the affordable housing gap in order to stem the looming affordability crisis within Houston’s urban core and its exurban neighborhoods.

INCOME AND HOUSING NUMBERS

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, Houston’s 2015 median household income is $48,258. In its June 2015 report, the Houston Association of Realtors’ numbers indicate the median home sold in the Houston MSA was priced at $223,000, a figure simply out of reach for most families.1 With a population of 2.2 million residents, and an average household size of 2.70 persons, only 45% of Houston households live in owner-occupied dwellings.2 The homeownership percentage is low in comparison to other major American cities, and is further compounded by the fact that Houston’s demand is causing housing values to grow at a much faster pace than median family income. A continuation of this trend will likely lead to further decline in homeownership rates, but more troubling is the fact that short supply and increasing demand by residents looking to live within Houston’s urban core, is driving real estate prices significantly higher.

In 2011, the US Census estimated a Houston median household income of $42,811, which means median income has risen about 12.7% over the last four years.3 Over that same period, however, median home values rose from $161,000 in the Houston MSA to $223,000, an approximate 38.5% increase ($123,000 to $187,176 in the City of Houston or a 52% increase). The homeownership rate in the MSA is down 6-8% from 2010 at the peak of the economic recession, and the cost of renting a home has grown significantly in every housing category over that time span. The outlook is even more dire for millennials and Nextgen whose median income at $35,034 qualifies them to purchase a home, though not at Houston’s median home price.4 There is also a rising trend within the group where those able to purchase a home are opting to rent in order to be closer to work or the inner city, a fact bolstered by a recent survey where a majority of millennials plan to put off buying a home till 2018 and beyond.5

The conventional measure of housing affordability stipulates that households should spend 30% or less of their income on housing expenses. In a study conducted by Rice University’s Shell Center for Sustainability, the results indicated that in five of Houston’s 11 city council districts, 31% of households spent in excess of 30% of their income on housing.6 The study further ranked Houston 26th on the list of top 50 U.S. cities for affordability when transportation costs were factored in, a fact best appreciated by suburban residents most familiar with Houston’s traffic. In a separate report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 45.5% of renter households in the Houston MSA spent more than 30% of their income on housing.7

POVERTY NUMBERS

Concentration of poverty continues to be a problem throughout the United States, though there has been a marked shift in where it persists. In the aftermath of the economic downturn from the early 2000’s and the 2008 recession, poverty has become more concentrated in distressed neighborhoods, and has shifted from big cities and rural areas, into suburban and exurban areas. According to a 2014 report, analyzing the American Communities Survey (2008-2012), by the Brookings Institution, the concentration of poverty is exacerbating the challenges facing disadvantaged neighborhoods—namely escalating crime rates, failing schools, poorer health outcomes, and fewer employment opportunities—making it harder for families to break the cycle of poverty.8 The report further cites that the number of distressed neighborhoods, census tracts where poverty rates exceed 40 percent, rose by 75% during the 2000’s, and nearly every major metropolitan area witnessed the growth of suburban poverty during the same time period. These numbers accentuate the fact that the issue of poverty is no longer just an urban or rural issue, but rather has become a broader issue that must be addressed in all parts of the country. And the future economic success of cities such as Houston is inextricably linked to the ability to offer quality affordable housing options, a critical element of breaking the cycle of poverty.

The graphic below indicates that, following the 2008 economic downturn, the Houston region now has 44.1% of its poor suburban residents living in high poverty or distressed neighborhoods.


HOUSTON’S HOUSING SITUATION

Houston’s leaders’ primary objective going forward has to be determining how we provide quality housing options at an affordable cost for both renters and homeowners within the city limits. Data from the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs indicates that as of January 1, 2015, 46,261 affordable housing units (7,700 restricted for seniors 55 and above) were available in Houston from the state’s Housing Tax Credit programs.9 Data from the Houston Housing Authority shows that 4,825 housing units are available (not including 1,200 Housing Tax Credit units), while the agency administers about 17,000 vouchers, making a total of approximately 23,000 housing units the agency is responsible for.10 Combining data from both agencies, we can approximate that affordable/rent-restricted housing units for Houston’s low to moderate income families, earning between $15,000 and $42,800 or 30% to 60% of Area Median Income (AMI), totals out to 70,000 housing units.

Analysis of the household and population data from the American Communities Survey shows that of the slightly over 800,000 households within the city of Houston, 345,000 of them have household incomes of $35,000 or less, while another 110,000 earn between $35,000 and $50,000. The numbers further indicate that approximately 16,200 households earning below $35,000 annually live in owner-occupied housing units, and approximately 14,000 households earning between $35,000 and $50,000 own their homes, a total of just over 30,000. These numbers include senior households aged 55 years and above, where 126,225 earn below $35,000, and 37,211 earn between $35,000 and $50,000 for a total of 163,436 households. These statistics confirm that homeownership has not been a viable option for most of Houston’s working class families, leaving over 300,000 Houston households with rental housing as their primary option. Taking into account other socioeconomic factors such as credit, employment stability, and upward mobility, you find that most of those residents simply are unable to leverage homeownership as a tool to climb up the economic ladder.

This leaves approximately 270,000 households having to rely on market driven supply for affordable housing options. Those market forces do supply many of the households within that gap, though the options might be limited to substandard dwelling units. Furthermore, over 50% of those households spend above the recommended 30% of their income on housing, leaving less for other living expenses. Houston still maintains affordability in certain areas, a fortuitous benefit of its free market and sprawl growth model. There are a number of older neighborhoods that have owner-occupied and rental homes available at modest prices, and there are homes in ex-urban neighborhoods that have been developed over the last 30-40 years. The housing supply in these areas are usually an aging stock surrounded by declining neighborhoods. Based on the present development market (construction prices and land costs), it is impractical to rehabilitate some of the older housing, and developers are unable to develop new homes priced at or below the city’s median price. In August 2015, of the 5,700 homes with a ‘Houston’ address on the Houston Association of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service, 32% were priced below $220,000, and a mere 19% were priced at or below $160,000

In the multifamily sector Class  B and C+ apartments scattered throughout Houston’s city limits, have experienced significant rental rate increases, driving a lot of residents to Class C and D complexes, the remnants of the apartment developments built from 1960s to 1980s that likely account for 60% or more of the affordable apartment inventory in the market. Listings for affordably priced rentals and apartments are primarily concentrated on the eastern half of the Inner Loop, and in areas spread out around the city’s periphery, where transportation options are limited and costs are significant. The single-family residences in those areas have become rentals due to stagnant market conditions, where rental values have risen faster than home values. This market condition has been driven, in part, by few buyers at income levels that qualify them for a mortgage. A number of these neighborhoods are ripe for redevelopment and significant infrastructural investment that, if done right, can turn those neighborhoods into thriving communities yet again.


Figure 2a.



Figure 2a. shows the number of homes for in August 2015 on the Houston MLS priced below Houston’s affordability cap of $160,00, and compares that percentage to the percent of households earning less than $50k annually.


Figure 2b.



Figure 2b. depicts the gap between the number of households needing affordable housing and the availability of housing restricted to low to moderate income households.


  
RECOMMENDATIONS: A PATHWAY FORWARD

The City’s embrace of higher density housing has been a positive step in the right direction, however, the City will need to do much more to meet the housing shortage it faces. The City needs to place emphasis on single and multi-family housing development, and must maintain a fair and balanced approach where neighborhood objection to high density multifamily housing, the proverbial Not In My Back Yard (“NIMBY”), does not become the prevailing wind that dictates housing policy decisions. To achieve its aims, the City needs to collaborate with various stakeholders including developers, non-profit organizations, real estate professionals, TIRZ’s (tax increment reinvestment zones) and neighborhood organizations to generate a workable needs and market driven plan for affordable housing.

Rental Housing

Projections from Houston’s demographic forecasters anticipate that the city’s population will continue to grow at a steady pace over the next decade. Using this data, the City can estimate a goal of affordable rental housing units to be built within the City limits over the next 10 years. Furthermore, the City should establish targets for development of housing in certain opportunistic areas with good schools that are within proximity of major employment centers including areas such as Downtown, The Texas Medical Center, Greenway Plaza, Galleria, Town & Country, Energy Corridor, The Woodlands, and NASA/Clear Lake. The City can begin by establishing the following baseline goals:

  • Develop 20,000 rental units for working class families over the five year period from 2016 - 2020
  • Set an average target number of affordable housing units per square mile in high opportunity areas

The City should take action to implement the following:
  • Replicate the $15,000 per door incentive program used to drive development of residential units in the eastern half of Downtown, by offering abatements to developers whose projects incorporate at least 60% of the units restricted to below market rents for residents within 30–80% AMI.
  • Leverage existing HOME and CDBG funds with state 4% Tax Exempt Bonds and 9% Housing Tax Credits to drive development of affordable housing in target areas.
  • Utilize CIP spending to drive infrastructural improvements in target areas, and apply housing dollars from TIRZ’s, and development incentives such as tax abatements and lower permit fees to accelerate workforce housing development
  • Implement a standard reimbursement for builders who tear down structures cited as dangerous buildings by the City, provided they construct affordable housing in its place within three years
  • Establish a policy when City funds are expended towards a development or City-owned land is involved that requires inclusion of between 10 - 25% below market rate housing units in the project.
  • Reserve portions of City-owned land in higher opportunity areas for construction of mixed income and affordable developments (an example is the pending sale of the Municipal Court Complex).
  • Incorporate fast-track permitting for “affordable” housing to facilitate faster delivery of housing units.
  • Fast-track the Planning Department approval process for developers with an established track record with the City.

Home Ownership

The goal of achieving development of affordable homes within the urban core must focus on overcoming the significant barriers of high cost of land, scarcity of assembled large contiguous tracts, lack of qualified buyers, tightened mortgage requirements, and the unfavorable risk/reward ratio that drives most builders to respond to the needs of the higher end of the market. The City of Houston needs to rebuild and rebrand its homeownership incentive program to make it more robust, flexible, and accommodating to the development of affordable single-family homes within the urban core. Some of the proposed goals for City’s single family program should include:
  • Achieve a 40% conversion rate of Land Assemblage Redevelopment Authority (LARA) owned lots into developed single-family dwelling units from 2016–2020.
  • Facilitate construction of 10,000 single family homes for working class families from 2016–2020.
  • Partner with developers and offer reimbursements for infrastructural improvements (sidewalks, lighting, pocket parks) in communities needing revitalization.

The City should also take action to implement the following:

  • Raise the affordability cap on home sales prices on a sliding scale up to $220,000, enabling builders to acquire land from public entities at a de minimis amount and still build a quality home.
  • Expand the City’s service worker homebuyer incentive program to include policemen, firefighters, non-managerial city workers, teachers, nurses, and Metro service employees.
  • Expand first time homebuyer assistance programs and partner with area banks on establishing more favorable lending requirements, downpayment assistance, and second mortgage coverage.
  • Create a fast-track permitting process for builders constructing homes under the city’s affordable housing program, and lessen permit and impact fees to help achieve affordability price targets.
  • Compile a singular database of city-owned land, and hasten the process of reclaiming tax delinquent properties within certain nodes targeted for housing development to facilitate land assemblage for development of single family homes.
  • Establish a policy when City funds are applied towards a development or City-owned land is involved that requires development of a certain percentage of homes at or below the affordability cap.
  • Establish a standard tax rebate to reimburse developers who tear down structures cited as dangerous buildings by the City, provided they build affordable housing in its place within three years.

SUMMARY CONCLUSION

The City of Houston needs to commission a Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis, which would measure income and households against housing options available that fit within the 30 percent income test. This study would help the City better understand the shortages in affordable housing, identify areas of greatest need, and offer a defined basis on which to prioritize affordable housing development. The study should quantify the percent of current dwelling units that are substandard housing, and those that need to be rebuilt or rehabilitated to extend their useful life. Quantitative data from this study should be evaluated against the aforementioned recommendations to ascertain if the suggested actions go far enough in helping the City meet its long-term affordable housing needs.

Houston’s population is projected to continue to grow at an annual rate of 1.36%, which means the city will add 181,000 residents by the end of the next Mayor’s term. Though the City will maintain population growth, its growth rate continues to lag behind the MSA, leaving it at a net population loss, relative to the region, and at further risk of erosion of its comparative tax base.11 Beyond its population growth, Houston’s upward real estate trend is emblematic of trends endured by other markets, where escalating real estate values have driven working class families out of the city limits. A nearby example of such a market is Austin, TX, where rents increased 50% from 2004 to 2013, young professionals are being driven out of the City’s core, and just six neighborhoods have rental listings priced on average at or below $1,000 per month.12  

With comprehensive study data available, the City’s Housing and Community Development Department can work with the Planning Department and community stakeholders to apply necessary revisions to the goal of affordable housing units needed to be completed within the 5 year span from 2016 to 2020. The data can also help establish a more comprehensive decade-long forecast. This longitudinal forecast can then be incorporated into a prioritization chart, where housing development numbers are targeted by geographic area, type (family or elderly), and category (rental or owner occupied). Lastly, the action plan should be integrated within the City’s Neighborhoods and Public Works & Engineering Departments, so that they can be part of the process of improving target neighborhoods, and prioritizing capital improvement spending.

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Laolu Davies-Yemitan is a real estate broker/consultant working with private investors and housing developers who specialize in multifamily and urban-suburban revitalization. (Twitter: @laoludavies).


REFERENCES


2.  US Census Bureau (2009 – 2013): http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48/4835000.html

3.  Houston Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service Report (June 2011): http://www.har.com/content/mls/?m=7&y=11

4.   Bloomberg Millennial Housing Affordability Index (2015) - http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-millennial-affordability/table.html

5. Survey: Millennials want to buy houses but most will wait (2015) - http://blog.chron.com/primeproperty/2015/07/survey-millennials-want-to-buy-houses-but-most-will-wait/



8. The Growth and Spread of Concentrated Poverty, 2000 to 2008-2012 (2014) - http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2014/concentrated-poverty#/M10420

9.  Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs (2015) - http://www.tdhca.state.tx.us/multifamily/housing-tax-credits-9pct/index.htm


11.   Houston Chronicle – Houston posts strong growth but still outpaced by suburbs (2014) - http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Houston-boasts-strong-growth-but-still-outpaced-5496639.php

12.  Affordable Austin: Building The Housing We Need At Prices We Can Afford (Jan. 2015) -http://www.reca.org/public/uploads/files/general/2015RECAAffordabilityWhitePaper.pdf